Last-Click, First-Click, or Code: Attribution for Creator Marketing

Attribution debates in ad tech are about credit. In creator marketing they're about payroll: a commission is real money moving to a real person, and it needs a harder standard of evidence than a marketing dashboard does.

Why modeled attribution can't pay people

Multi-touch and "data-driven" models allocate fractional credit by algorithm. Fine for budget reviews; useless for payouts. You cannot pay a creator 0.4 of a commission because a model felt their story contributed. Disputes become unresolvable because nobody, including the vendor, can reproduce the number.

The deterministic hierarchy

1. Promo code on the order. The customer typed the creator's code at checkout. Unfalsifiable, platform-independent, and it works with zero integration.
2. Tracking id on the order itself. Not a cookie, an identifier that rides the cart through checkout and lands on the order record, immune to ad blockers and cookie purges.
3. Manual assignment with an audit trail. For the edge cases, decided by a human whose decision is logged.

One rule binds it: one order, one creator. Split credit breeds double payouts and end-of-month arguments.

"But doesn't that undercount?"

Yes, deterministic attribution misses some influenced sales, and that's the correct direction to be wrong in. Undercounting means your program's measured ROI is a floor, not a hope. Build payouts on facts, and let the unmeasured halo be upside rather than an invoice.